Nicholas Soames (Mid Sussex) (Con): Uncharacteristically, I am losing my voice. If it finally runs out, I shall just sit down.

I thank my hon. Friend the Minister for so clearly setting out the Government’s position. He has brought immeasurable good sense to this very difficult portfolio. When I think that 10 years ago, a Labour Minister at the Home Office, Beverley Hughes, described me as being a racist for even having an Adjournment debate on immigration, I can see that we have come a long way.

As the hon. Member for Rhondda (Chris Bryant) said, it is important that we can discuss this serious matter in a clear, open, sane and humane way. I regret having to say that over the years of the Labour Government, what was already a problem turned into a really, really serious problem, and this Government now have to put right something that is of great concern to an enormous number of our constituents. In those terms, I warmly welcome this debate and thank the Government for making time for it. That is a clear recognition by them of the widespread public concern about the scale of immigration to the United Kingdom.

That concern was illustrated by the remarkable response to a Migrationwatch petition on the Downing street website calling for immigration to be kept below 70 million. One hundred thousand people signed it within a week. The right hon. Member for Birkenhead (Mr Field) and I are in touch with the hon. Member for North East Derbyshire (Natascha Engel), the Chairman of the Backbench Business Committee, about how this should be followed up, and we hope to have-indeed, the Committee has said that we can have-a specific debate early next year, after the Government have announced their measures on economic and family migration that are now under consideration.

Today, however, I would like to make three broad points: first, that the Government’s policy objective is clearly the right one; secondly that migration to Britain can and must be reduced; and thirdly that encouraging the outflow of non-EU migrants who no longer have the right to remain in Britain will be the key to further progress once the first round of measures is in place.

I congratulate the Government on their strategic decision to reduce the level of net migration to tens of thousands and on sticking to that objective. This is the first time in British history that any Government have had the courage to establish such a firm objective for immigration. Such an objective is essential. We need to be absolutely clear that after the rapid increase in immigration since 1997-a catastrophic public policy failure-we now face a fundamental choice: either we allow population growth to continue indefinitely, with

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all that it would imply for our public services, environment and society, or we take the firm and sometimes difficult measures to bring immigration under control.

Governments in Britain have traditionally been reluctant to talk about the size of our population lest they be the butt of puerile references to Chinese birth control policy. Nevertheless, we must face the fact that two thirds of our population growth is now a result of immigration. Yet this is the only component that is potentially under Government control. If, therefore, population growth is to be kept within reasonable bounds, immigration simply has to be reduced-and reduced substantially.

The most recent population projections from the Office for National Statistics underline that point. It has assumed that immigration will continue at a rate of 200,000 a year-about the average of the past 10 years-but if that level is allowed to continue, the UK population will hit 70 million in about 16 years and will continue rising indefinitely beyond that period. Given that neither of the other two components-the birth rate and the death rate-is likely to change very much in that period, this is a mathematical certainty.

It is sometimes claimed that the ONS projections have been unreliable. The immigration lobby dines out on an error that the statisticians made nearly half a century ago at a range of 35 years. Methods have improved greatly since then. Nobody claims perfect accuracy but, in fact, over the past 50 years, and at a 20-year range, the ONS population projections have been accurate to plus or minus 2.5%.

The figure of 70 million is not simply a round number; it is a marker by which we can judge the success or otherwise of our immigration policy. It also flags up for the public exactly what is involved. We are talking about an extra 7 million in 16 years, of which 5 million will be a direct or indirect result of immigration. The public are perfectly clear that they do not wish to see a population increase on anything like that scale, and it is therefore absolutely incumbent on the Government to take effective action.

In seeking to take such action, the Government have been criticised for choosing net migration as the objective of immigration policy. It is suggested-correctly, of course-that the Government cannot control British emigration or immigration from the European Union. A glance at the numbers, however, shows that those two flows have generally cancelled each other out. It also shows that the real problem stems from an imbalance in migration from outside the European Union. For the last seven years, we have had something like 300,000 such immigrants every year while only 100,000 have left.

Mr David Ward (Bradford East) (LD): I think that we all accept what the right hon. Gentleman has said about immigration from outside the EU and about how immigration from within the EU is not controllable, but does he not agree that the behaviour of many Governments towards some of their own citizens-principally the Roma -in some parts of Europe is increasing the pressure on them to leave those countries and come here, because we treat them a good deal better than their own countries do?

Nicholas Soames: That is probably self-evidently true but it does not alter the fact that the figures remain correct, as I have said.

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It is this 200,000 net migration of non-EU citizens that the Government can and must control. My second point, then, concerns how that control might be achieved. The focus must be on the largest flows: students, economic migration and marriage, in that order. Non-EU student visas are still being issued at a rate of almost 1,000 a day. There has clearly been massive abuse of this route, with literally hundreds of dubious colleges being closed down in recent years, and rightly so-I warmly commend my hon. Friend the Minister on the vigorous action that he has taken on this matter.

Nobody disputes the benefit to the higher education sector and to the British economy more generally of foreign students who come to study here and who later return home-many of them as lifetime and greatly valued friends of Britain-but it seems to me that there are three main problems associated with this area of immigration: first, in spite of the Government’s efforts so far, there might still be a number of bogus courses and colleges being used by students; secondly students are still allowed to do too many courses and a number of repeat courses; and thirdly a number of students, although here legally, overstay at the conclusion of their courses.

Bogus students are a serious problem. At the end of the day, they come here to work illegally and send money home, and in doing so they undercut British workers and allow unscrupulous employers to compete unfairly with employers who provide a decent wage and decent conditions. The Government are absolutely right to crack down on this abuse, but they now need to go further and ensure that in countries of immigration concern students are interviewed at posts overseas to ensure that they are genuine and that they intend to return home after their course.

Those are the two critical tests, but the present box-ticking system severely constrains the ability of entry clearance officers to conduct them and act on their findings. That must change and change soon. I also suggest to my hon. Friend the Minister that the UK Border Agency be instructed to visit many more of these colleges so that it can truly satisfy itself as to the infrastructure, staff and validity of the courses being taught. This is a major problem and I know that he is dealing with it with great vigour.

The second largest inflow is of economic migrants, and here I must stress that we must be extremely careful not to impede the economic recovery on which everything depends. British and international firms must know that they can bring essential staff into this country to develop and expand their businesses. They must also have stability and predictability if they are to operate effective personnel policies. Fortunately, the Government have taken that into account in allowing intra-company transfers of senior staff with no restriction on numbers. They have also provided 20,000 or so work permits a year, of which, under the current economic circumstances, only about half have been taken up. The Government are also now proposing to break the previously almost automatic link between gaining a work permit and achieving permanent settlement in Britain. That is a fundamental step and is a suggestion originally put forward by the cross-party group on balanced migration, which I co-chair with the right hon. Member for Birkenhead. The details still need to be worked out, and we anxiously await the Minister’s decision. However, we

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believe that the proposal will provide a means of meeting the needs of employers while also limiting the impact on population growth.

I suspect that much of the concern in the business community has stemmed from the interim arrangements put in place shortly after the election, which caused a great deal of confusion. The longer-term arrangements should now be allowed to settle down, to ensure, as I have mentioned, the predictability and stability that, in practice, are so important to both employers and employees. There should be no more talk at all about whether Britain is “open for business”. Of course it is: it always has been and it always will be. The 40 million foreign citizens who arrive in Britain every year are surely firm evidence of that. Not only is such talk is wrong; it also damages the interests of business and this country.

The third ma

jor route is the family route. Clearly there can be no question of preventing British citizens from entering into genuine marriages with foreign nationals. However, the public interest is engaged when they propose to live in the UK. The Government are clearly right to ensure that those who choose to make their married life here should have enough English on arrival to participate from the outset in our community. I wholly endorse the remarks of the right hon. Member for Birkenhead, who is very sorry that he cannot be here tonight. He has made the point that there are large areas in this country where no integration has taken place, to the great disadvantage of the communities concerned, the communities surrounding them and the people living there who are not part of those communities. Those problems will cause great social disturbance in this country unless dealt with sensitively but firmly. We must ensure proper integration in future. The Government are also right to question whether the taxpayer should, in effect, subsidise marriage to a foreign partner. In addition, measures are needed to deal with cases where young people come under severe social pressure to marry someone resident abroad. More effective use of interviews could help in such cases, which fall short of forced marriage, but only just.

Thirdly, and lastly, the announcement of Government policies early next year will complete the first round of measures to address the scale of immigration. We must then watch how the numbers develop. There is, however, an important aspect to which we must shortly turn our attention. I refer to the outflow of non-EU migrants, which, as I mentioned earlier, has been substantially less than the inflow. That is due to large numbers staying on in Britain, either legally, by extending their stays, or illegally. We need to ensure that those extending their stay are doing so for valid reasons. The new Home Office policy of requiring students to progress to a higher level of study before their stay can be extended is a step forward. We also need much more effective measures to deter and remove those who no longer have any right to be here.

I have gone into a certain amount of detail, because this, as so often, is where the devil resides. However, we must not lose sight of the wider picture. Over the last 15 years, we have issued something like 2 million visas a year, but have had no record of individuals as they have arrived and departed. As a result, the Government have no idea who is in this country or why they came in the first place. A clear set of policies is now being instituted to attend to that. They must succeed. Failure would

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mean losing control over the scale and, indeed, the fundamental nature of our very society. We are also in serious danger of losing public confidence in the Government’s ability to protect and control our borders. That is a fundamental duty of Government which must be most resolutely addressed.

I am grateful for the opportunity to speak in this debate. Let me again tell my hon. Friend the Minister that I applaud the way in which he is tackling this difficult problem.

8.4 pm

Mr Julian Brazier (Canterbury) (Con): It is a huge pleasure and honour to follow my right hon. Friend the Member for Mid Sussex (Nicholas Soames), who has spoken out on this issue again and again, including when abuse was heaped on anyone who tried to do so. I also praise my hon. Friend the Minister, who has brought great energy to one of the most difficult briefs in Government. What I am about to say will be pretty bleak, frankly, but not one word of it should be taken as a criticism of the huge amount of energy and intellect that he has brought to his job.

It is curious, looking through one’s postbag, how many of the pressing issues facing Britain today-housing shortages, congestion on roads and public transport, water shortages, pressures on public infrastructure of every kind-derive largely from a single, common factor: population growth, to which my right hon. Friend referred. We are one of the most densely populated countries in the world, with 255 people per square kilometre. During the time of the last Labour Government, immigration policies encouraged an unprecedented influx from EU and non-EU countries, which has boosted populations in some urban areas to near crisis point. Between 1997 and 2009, after deducting the number of those leaving, more than 2 million extra people were recorded as settling in the UK, a surge that is unprecedented. However, for the first time, those figures were calculated without using embarkation records, so the true figure may be much higher. The ONS projections to which my right hon. Friend referred have been upgraded again and again. For example, in 2004 they indicated that by the middle of this century our population would reach 67 million. In just three years that projection was increased to 77 million, and it continues to rise.

I believe we need to look at gross rather than net migration figures, for several reasons. First, many of those leaving are elderly people, looking to spend their retirement abroad in the sun. In contrast, the vast majority of immigrants are young. First-generation immigrants typically have large families compared with indigenous families. There is a further, obvious point, which was well understood in this country until the middle of the last century, which is that because we are basically overcrowded we always used to have more people leaving, precisely to find homes in emptier lands. Today, housing pressures are caused by domestic factors, such as family breakdown, increased longevity and so on, which have led to smaller household sizes, so if we do not have a degree of net emigration, we will have to keep building more and more. [cols 596-600]

Full debate:

House of Commons

Monday 12th December, 2011

Hansard Vol 537

No 239

Cols 581-628