Nicholas Soames: To ask the Minister for the Cabinet Office by what proportion the over 85 years population in (a) Mid Sussex and (b) West Sussex is forecast to rise over the next 20 years. [123531]

Mr Hurd, Parliamentary Secretary, Cabinet Office: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.

Letter from Glen Watson, dated October 2012:

As Director General for the Office for National Statistics I have been asked to reply to your Parliamentary Question asking the Minister for the Cabinet Office by what proportion the over 85 population in (a) Mid Sussex and (b) West Sussex is forecast to rise over the next 20 years. [123531]

Estimates of future population are available as population projections. The most recent sub national population projections are based on mid-year population estimates for 2011 but only project the population growth for 10 years to 2021, therefore the 2010-based sub national projections have been used to respond to your Parliamentary Question. These projections do not take account of results of the 2011 Census.

Sub national population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact of future government policies, changing economic circumstances or the capacity of an area to accommodate a change in population. They provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population if recent demographic trends continued.

Between mid-2012 and mid-2032, the over 85 population in Mid Sussex is, rounded to the nearest 100, projected to rise from 3,000 to 6,800, an increase of 122 percent. Looking at this as a proportion of the total population, the over 85 population is projected to increase by approximately two percentage points from 2.2 to 4.4 per cent.

Between mid-2012 and mid-2032, the over 85 population in West Sussex, rounded to the nearest 100, is projected to rise from 23,500 to 47,000, an increase of 101 percent. Looking at this as a proportion of the total population, the over 85 population is projected to increase by approximately two percentage points from 2.9 to 5.0 per cent.

The over 85 age group has been defined as those aged 86 and over.

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